The Gambler
Knowing When To Fold 'Em

Birthdays can be a time of increased mojo for many of us. The most powerfully motivating birthdays are often the tens, 30 years old, 40 years old, 50 years old and beyond.
When KP turned 50 he was super stoked to put in a big year of racing. His mindset was he needed to get his results before it was too late. It worked, it was the fastest he ever raced. Then his life became difficult. At the time, I shared an observation with him, that I want to pass along to you…
If your mental health depends on being able to do a lot of exercise then never, ever, ever take any action that might jeopardize your ability to train.
Watching Kev age up into the 50-54, and across the years that followed, I want to share hard-won experience that will help you achieve a lifelong enjoyment of sport.
Sunk Cost Fallacy
Are you familiar with the sunk cost fallacy?
Sunk cost fallacy is the tendency to continue investing time, money, or effort into something simply because we’ve already put resources into it—even when it’s no longer the rational choice.
In my day job (investing) the sunk cost fallacy costs people millions.
In sport, the fallacy can cost us everything - ie our health.
The most common error is sick, injured or burnt out athletes racing because they signed up.
If you love an athlete then always encourage them not-to race when they are sick, injured or burnt out.
I have friends that, once they commit family money, feel obligated to race regardless of their readiness. In a couple months, burnt-out athletes will line up on the start line in Kona.
The older we get, the more that attitude will cost us.
When Not To Go One More
My friends all crave just-one-more. Heck, I crave one more too. One more usually has something to do with Kona or World Champs.
I write articles,
I encourage people to race short,
I point out that there is nothing at the finish line…
…and still we continue.
Here is a checklist you can share with a friend who’s past the Limit.
Just before your health completely falls apart, you will be able to tick-the-box on many of these:
Sleep disturbances.
The start of a self-reinforcing negative loop.
Soreness that doesn’t clear.
Injury, even seemingly accidental.
Elective orthopedic surgeries.
The mental trap is thinking surgery will be the solution so we can return to a lifestyle that is causing chronic breakdown.
I had a friend who surgeon-shopped until they found someone willing to operate. Multiple surgeries didn’t fix the problem because the issue was lifestyle, not orthopedic.
Fat gain
See my recent article on Being Fat and Active.
Suppressed hormone and out of normal range blood markers.
Increased use of alcohol and drugs, including pain killers & anti-inflammatories.
Breathlessness at (formerly) easy paces.
Our bodies will start to actively shut us down, to protect us.
Recent podcast on this, extract below.

One of the challenges with elite sport is we are often up against people who would do anything for victory. You’ll hear this theme with many elites when they talk about the end of their careers. The risks inherent in sport, and the lifestyle required to perform, were not worth it, anymore.
Remember, you are participating for fun and we are playing a game.
To help people break free of a pattern that is damaging their health, I ask them to describe their future life.
Where are you trying to get to?
What are you trying to create?
Is this current approach effective?
I’ve had friends (and readers in my DMs) agree then postpone the decision - to the winter, to the end of next season, to just after the next build… be careful with that. The warning signs (above) are an indication that you’re beyond the limit.
We are playing a long game and I’d like to keep you on the team.
Link to The Tired Athlete
Back to eBook Table of Contents



Your writing often catches me at an intersection. 50+ year old me looked forward to training 10-15+ hours. The majority of time I found The Flow. As previously stated, I live for The Flow. It is my drug of choice.
60+ year old me has settled in to 8-10 hours of training. I’m still able to find Flow most sessions. 8-10 hours weekly of SBR is sustainable at this point. 70.3 racing at this age and training volume is ideal.
Back to your post…
I’m constantly tempted to throw an Ironman, marathon, or Ultraman in there.
The downsize is just to great.
The daily struggle…
As I'm currently injured, this line really hit me: "If your mental health depends on being able to do a lot of exercise then never, ever, ever take any action that might jeopardize your ability to train."
Staying healthy is the priority above everything else. There's rarely anything worth jeopardizing your long-term health for. The goal is really to be able to keep doing what you love for as many years as possible.